My friend Phil thought he was an investing genius.
On February 17, 2020 in the early days of the Pandemic, he sold all his stocks.
And then all hell broke loose.
On March 12, stocks fell 10% in a single day, and Phil was sitting in cash.
On March 16, stocks fell 12% in a single day, the third worst daily decline in U.S. history.
And Phil was sitting in cash feeling brilliant.
He had watched the headlines of the COVID-19 virus spreading around the world. And had a gut feeling this would be a disaster, so he acted.
But now just a few years later, Phil’s retirement dreams are a disaster.
After his one major victory, he traded investing fundamentals for gut-feeling decision-making. In other words, he mistook lucky for smart.
Today I’ll tell you the rest of Phil’s story so you can avoid this same mistake… and can cash in on one of the greatest investing opportunities of the last 20 years.
Don’t Mistake Lucky for Smart
On March 23, 2020, state after state was locking down and the S&P 500 dropped 34% from its record highs.
The internet was plastered with terrifying headlines that doomsday prophets like Robert Kiyosaki had spent the last decade predicting.
And in those early days of the crisis, it looked like they might be right.
I barely slept in March of 2020. I was too busy reading everything I could about the pandemic and the economy – updating clients about how to keep their dividend income safe in this unprecedented tragedy.
I told my subscribers that historically – the average bear market bottom is about -34%.
The causes of each bear market are different. But stocks can only get so cheap when they are down. Around 30% is a great time to buy.
Phil heard me and ignored me.
He forgot history. He missed the facts. And instead, he went with his gut.
His gut told him that the doomsday prophets predicting a 60%, 70%, or even 90% market crash were right…
He was convinced there would be at least a 60% crash (worse than the 58% decline of the Great Recession). And thought the S&P 500 would drop another 30% from the March 23 close…
How could it not?
The St. Louis Fed had just released a report warning that unemployment might increase by 50% if the government didn’t respond. That’s twice as bad as the Great Depression when stocks fell 87%.
But in reaction to the drop on March 23, the Fed announced it would buy corporate bonds, even junk bonds. It would “do whatever it takes” to save the economy.
Two days later, Congress passed the CARES Act, sending stimulus checks to Americans for the first time in history.
And in response to this news, the stock market bottomed and took off.
A year later the stock market had nearly doubled.
This resulted in the single best 12-month rally in U.S. market history.
How had my lucky friend Phil done in that face-ripping rally? He had spent the entire time in cash… gaining nothing…
By August the market was at new record highs…
Phil couldn’t believe that locking down the entire economy would “only cause stocks to drop 34%.”
So he didn’t buy a thing.
Not even in November of 2020 when market rally kicked into overdrive.
In March of 2021, Congress passed another massive stimulus bill – the third one.
In response, stocks raged even higher.
And still, Phil was too scared to buy…
After all, stock prices had doubled and things were starting to get expensive.
Prior to this point, I had presented him with one investment opportunity after another, explaining how time in the market is far more important than timing the market.
As Brad Thomas has written about before:
One thing market timing investors don’t tell you is that there are 10 days each decade that impact your bottom line more than the rest of the 2,510 trading days combined.
And those 10 days can make or break your wealth if you miss them.
But Phil just couldn’t bring himself to buy a single share… until his gut told him it was time – in December of 2021.
One month later on January 4, 2022, the market hit its record high… then spent the next nine months falling 28%.
Phil was so shocked by this terrible timing, that he panicked and sold all his stocks at a 30% loss on October 10, 2022.
Two days later, stocks bottomed and then took off… staging an epic 50% rally by July of 2023.
Phil got very lucky once…
And decided that being lucky was more important than being smart.
He traded investing fundamentals for gut feelings.
And found out… that not all gut feelings are lucky. In fact, some are downright destructive.
Phil’s decision to stay out of the market until December 2021 and to sell everything in October of 2022 cost him time, money, and worse yet – the confidence he needed to stay smart and stick to basics.
If he had let the world’s best dividend blue-chip companies work hard for him, he wouldn’t have had to live in fear on the sidelines.
Amazing Investment Opportunities Are Always Around
Although Phil no longer has the confidence to invest in individual stocks, there are always amazing investment opportunities hiding in plain sight.
While many stocks are still too expensive to buy right now, we recommended one dividend aristocrat in our Intelligent Income Investor service – that has a 28-year dividend growth streak and is trading at an enormous discount.
This hyper-growth company is growing at 20% per year.
And it’s currently trading at a 68% discount.
You read that right.
It’s trading at just 5x earnings when it normally trades at 18x earnings.
The market is pricing it for -8% long-term growth, but it is a part of a $400 trillion megatrend.
Today’s market isn’t cheap, but this hyper-growth dividend aristocrat is a screaming bargain.
And could triple any investment in the next two years alone.
So don’t sit on the sidelines like Phil.
Check out our Intelligent Income Investor service today, and cash in on one of the greatest investing opportunities of the last 20 years. You’ll also receive access to an entire portfolio of battle-tested stocks that deliver safe, reliable, and durable income streams.
Don’t try and be lucky. Stay smart – and invest in quality companies that will grow your wealth for years to come.
Safe Investing,
Adam Galas
Analyst, Intelligent Income Daily