Yesterday, I gave you my general take on why I’m so optimistic about President Trump’s second term.
Today, let me get more specific in saying that it’s very much about jobs. American jobs for Americans in America, to be precise – and for both Republicans and Democrats across every tax bracket.
There’s been a major debate in the media for months now about how much job growth the U.S. has really seen over the past few years. With last month being a major exception that can – and perhaps should – be blamed on labor strikes and disastrous hurricanes, U.S. employers have added quite a number of positions over the past several years.
The monthly data (at least before revisions) has been outright shocking at times.
But then Donald Trump posted on his social media platform, Truth Social, that “most new jobs under Biden went to illegal immigrants.” And, immediately, journalists and political commentators went all in reacting to the accusation.
Some sources dismissed it outright. Others, like The Washington Post, pointed out that while “employment among native-born Americans has not changed much relative to a pre-pandemic peak… it is also true that the number of foreign-born U.S. residents who are working is up since before the pandemic, as data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics show.”
In other words, these workers are completely legal. Some of them are even naturalized citizens, the Post points out.
I can’t say I’m completely familiar with the data President Trump was referring to in his post. So I won’t comment on it one way or the other.
But I do have quite a bit to say about American jobs in general – and why I expect U.S. citizens and the larger U.S. economy to benefit greatly under the incoming administration… regardless of whether they were born here or not.
Deeply Disturbing Economic Data
Right now, many conservative-leaning and liberal-leaning news outlets alike are predicting elevated U.S. inflation under Trump. They point out that his proposed tariffs on every foreign-made product will increase prices on a vast array of goods considering how little we actually make here anymore.
And they have a very good point.
I just think they also need to point out how an increased focus on domestic energy production – which he’s also talked about – will positively affect inflation. So will decreased spending on foreign wars.
And President Trump’s pledge to bring back American jobs for Americans will drastically improve our economic situation as well.
The more Americans that have jobs in America, after all, the more disposable income they’ll have. The more disposable income they have, the more they’ll invest in the consumer and stock markets alike. The more they invest in the markets, the more the economy will grow.
Which, incidentally, is exactly what those tariffs are aimed at, making them a long-term positive for the country. And considering the undisputed employment data, American citizens could use some positives.
Did you know that American “men have been steadily dropping out of the workforce, especially men ages 25 to 54, who are considered to be in their prime working years”? That’s not according to Fox Business, though I’m sure it’s covered the story, too.
It’s actually a quote from a CNBC piece – hardly a MAGA crowd member – published on September 21, which goes on to say that:
According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the unemployment rate for prime-age working men was 3.4% in August 2024. This number primarily includes those who are unemployed and looking for a job. But about 10.5% of men in their prime working years, or roughly 6.8 million men nationwide, are neither working nor looking for employment, compared with just 2.5% in 1954.
Some might say that’s because they tried and tried, couldn’t find anything, and finally gave up. But regardless of the reason:
“The long-term decline in labor force participation by so-called prime age-men is a tremendous worry for our society, our economy, and probably our political system,” said Nicholas Eberstadt, a political economist at the American Enterprise Institute.
Most of these men, multiple sources say, don’t have a college education. In which case, a return of manufacturing jobs to the U.S. could do enormous good “for our society, our economy, and probably our political system” too.
I Can’t Shake My Economic Enthusiasm for the Next Four Years
Looking at employment numbers versus the unemployment rate can seem pretty confusing at times. How can one rise and the other fall?
But it’s very possible when those jobs are getting “farmed in,” as it were. The Pew Research Center noted back in March how Temporary Protected Status, or TPS, “has greatly expanded” since “President Joe Biden took office in January 2021.”
Again, that’s legal immigration. So are the “expanding opportunities for temporary workers” the Department of Homeland Security wrote about last year through H-2B visa programs.
Look, President Trump isn’t anti-legal immigration. But he believes in America first. And he can clearly see that America is hurting right now.
So while America should be a net positive to the rest of the world, it needs to be healthy first.
Fortunately, Trump has already proven he can do something about that. To quote the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics from early 2020:
The U.S. labor market remained strong in 2019, as the unemployment rate fell to 3.5%, the lowest rate since 1969. Both the employment-population ratio and the civilian labor force participation rate increased over the year. Levels of long-term joblessness and involuntary part-time employment continued to trend down.
Today, for the record, it’s 4.1%.
That’s a stark difference.
Look, I know I’ve been pretty political the last few days. But that’s because politics impacts our economy – what we can invest in and how much we have to invest.
So all of this needs to be said.
I mentioned yesterday how much Trump accomplished economically in his first term, even with so much of Congress against him. So think about how much more of his pledges he can keep with the new “red wave” of representatives and senators who will be joining him in D.C. in just a few months.
Republicans weren’t necessarily for him the last time around. But even Democrats – Kamala Harris included – campaigned on Trump talking points these past few months. Moreover, whether they like it or not, the American people have spoken.
And they said they want a change from the current status quo. Don’t think both sides of the aisle – who are always so very intent on keeping their jobs – didn’t notice.
But even without Congressional enthusiasm, I firmly and fully believe Trump will do everything in his power to fight for America and American jobs. Maybe he won’t get it all passed on Day 1. In fact, I don’t expect him to.
I plan to speak with him soon to discuss his economic agenda and I can assure you that I will keep my readers and customers in the loop.
But give him and his administration a bit of time, and I think we’re going to see an America that’s truly worth investing in.
Because it invested in itself first.
Regards,
Brad Thomas
Editor, Wide Moat Daily
MAILBAG
Do you agree with Brad that more jobs will be opened up for Americans? What other opportunities do you think Trump’s second term will bring? Write us at feedback@widemoatresearch.com.