It’s officially December, everyone.
The end of the year.
The holiday season is now officially in full swing. Ugly sweater parties are being planned. And investors will begin talking about the Santa Claus rally any day now.
As for November, I hope you all had a wonderful Thanksgiving holiday filled with family, friends, rest, and relaxation. Judging by some of the numbers below, your long weekend may very well have been filled with Black Friday shopping – from the comfort of your own couch – and/or a trip to the movie theater.
Even cash-strapped consumers had no problem whipping out their credit cards the last few days. I imagine that more than one retailer is smiling pretty wide right now.
Let’s discuss a bit more about that and four other news stories that piqued my interest the last few days.
Online Black Friday Shopping Got a Hit of Caffeine This Year
It used to be that Black Friday was only one day… the Friday after Thanksgiving.
I say “used to be” because there are plenty of three-day and even five-day sales going on. So it might be a bit before we get the full “Black Friday” picture for 2024.
For now, what we know is that U.S. consumers did a lot of their shopping online. All told, they purchased about $10.8 billion worth of stuff on Friday alone. That’s a 10.2% jump year-over-year, with Adobe Analytics reporting that the biggest sellers were makeup, skincare, haircare products, Bluetooth speakers…
And espresso machines.
Seeing that data makes me especially curious about what today will bring. Because, of course, it’s now Cyber Monday. Some have speculated that Black Friday online sales will start to overshadow the online extravaganza. Perhaps even this year.
But one way or the other, I’m absolutely certain we’ll see big numbers recorded once again as shoppers take to Amazon, Walmart… and the many other store sites they poured over just three days ago all over again.
If you’re looking for evidence of a slowing consumer… you’ll have to look elsewhere. That should be welcome news for many of the retailers we hold in our model portfolios.
Stellantis CEO Carlos Tavares Calls It Quits
You know those car commercials that always come out this season? The ones where some lucky spouse or teenager walks outside to the driveway to find a brand-new car with an enormous bow on top?
The ones that always made you wonder… Do people actually do that?
Well, it looks like they haven’t been doing that with Stellantis (STLA). That company just isn’t looking good as of late.
We learned in late October that its Q3 net revenue fell 27% year-over-year, down to €33 billion. This was “primarily due to lower shipments and unfavorable mix as well as pricing and foreign exchange impacts,” it said. But then, a mere week later, we learned that its Jeep plant in Ohio was going to lay off over 1,000 workers.
And now it appears the trouble runs even deeper than that since CEO Carlos Tavares stepped down yesterday. He’s out on his own free will. Immediately.
Tavares had planned to retire after his current contract ended early next year. So the company was already on the lookout for a new CEO. But apparently that timeline hit quite the surprise snag after “different views… emerged” in the last few weeks over which direction to take the struggling company in.
That’s the polite wording of Stellantis Senior Independent Director Henri de Castries. But it’s not hard to read between the lines that boardroom meetings were getting heated. So heated, in fact, that Tavares decided he was done altogether.
To be a fly on those walls…
The stock opened 7% lower this morning. All told, STLA has fallen 42% this year. At under 3 times earnings, you might assume STLA is a bargain. I’m not so sure. Automotive manufacturing is a tough business with notoriously slim margins. And things seem pretty volatile in the C-suite. I’d steer clear for the time being.
Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs for Touching the U.S. Dollar
Perhaps the biggest financial story over the weekend was how President-elect Donald Trump gave the BRICS nations – Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, and affiliated countries – an ultimatum. Either ditch their efforts at creating a world reserve currency or get slapped with 100% tariffs.
Here are his exact words, as posted on Truth Social:
The idea that the BRICS Countries are trying to move away from the Dollar while we stand by and watch is OVER. We require a commitment from these Countries that they will neither create a new BRICS Currency, nor back any other Currency to replace the mighty U.S. Dollar or, they will face 100% Tariffs, and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful U.S. Economy.
How will these other nations respond? That’s the big question. As of this writing earlier today, I hadn’t seen any news on the subject. But you’d better believe I’m waiting and watching to see how this story develops.
Stay tuned…
Overall Optimism Among U.S. Homebuilders (With One Little Snag)
That brings me to the next story that really caught my eye: how builder sentiment is on the move.
The National Association of Home Builders (“NAHB”) recently reported that “builder sentiment improved for the third straight month.” And, for the month of November, at least, that optimism seems to be thanks to Trump.
NAHB Chairman Carl Harris made it clear that “the industry still faces many headwinds,” including labor shortages. However:
With the elections now in the rearview mirror, builders are expressing increasing confidence that Republicans gaining all the levers of power in Washington will result in significant regulatory relief for the industry that will lead to the construction of more homes and apartments. This is reflected in a huge jump in builder sales expectations over the next six months.
Admittedly, that good news is a bit tempered now, also thanks to Trump. The president-elect’s proposed tariffs, after all, could significantly impact material costs. So, it boils down to a few questions:
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Will Trump actually impose the heavy tariffs he’s talking about?
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Will he be able to slash government regulations like he wants to?
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How will the final results balance out?
Like the larger homebuilding community and their many, many clients… we’ll just have to wait and see what happens from here.
But at least for the time being, this is great news for homebuilding supplier and portfolio company Owens Corning (OC). We added the position in October and are showing 14% unrealized returns as I write. Congratulations to all Wide Moat Letter readers who took part.
Shocking Levels of Success at the Box Office
This Thanksgiving proved once again that people will still go to the movie theaters… if they’re given something they think is worth watching.
They’ll even go and see a Disney (DIS) movie, as was the case with Moana 2. That sequel raked in $221 million in domestic ticket sales Thursday through Sunday. Not only is that much more than twice the $100 million analysts expected, but it also marked the highest Thanksgiving weekend performance. Ever.
Even Frozen II “only” brought in $125 million for its five-day launch five years ago.
Another big-name winner was Wicked, which placed second with an estimated – and very respectable – $117.5 million in ticket sales. And that’s after its second week out. The book-to-Broadway-to-big-screen adaption has now netted $359.2 million globally.
Add in Gladiator II, which made $44 million over the holiday weekend for a total of $111.2 million in U.S. sales and $320 million globally… and you’ve got another record broken. This time, it’s a collective record but no less impressive.
All told, from what we can see now, U.S. moviegoers purchased $420 million worth of tickets over the long Thanksgiving weekend.
The last such record was set in 2018 at $315 million, which is a stark difference, to say the least. There’s no way to see this year’s moviegoer magic as anything but impressive. However, I’ll reiterate that it’s up to Hollywood to make that magic last.
If it wants to keep seeing such success stories play out, it needs to keep giving consumers what they want. No more lazy writing or pushy politics.
To a real-estate guy like me, this begs the question of how well movie theaters – and their landlords – can do as a result. But that’s a topic for tomorrow!
I plan on doing a much deeper dive on Tuesday for anyone thinking there’s an opportunity in the making.
Regards,
Brad Thomas
Editor, Wide Moat Daily