We often hear that one does not discuss politics or religion in polite company. Otherwise, it’s a good way to ruin a perfectly good conversation.
But considering what happened over the weekend – and how everyone is still talking about what happened over the weekend – we’ll break that rule today and risk offending somebody by asking: Who will be the next president of the United States?
It’s going to be Donald Trump.
That moment on Saturday was iconic as he stood defiant on the podium in Butler, Pennsylvania, with blood on his face and his fist in the air, the survivor of an assassin’s bullet. The gesture wasn’t just an assurance for his supporters. It was a rallying cry for anyone and everyone who’s been sitting on the fence thus far.
In walking off that stage, alive and well, Trump became even larger than life than ever before.
That’s why I’m here to tell you that, like it or not, he’s going to be the 47th president. Very likely, the Republicans will take Congress as well.
In which case, as an investor of any stripe, you’d better get your money ready to allocate appropriately.
The Stars Are Aligned (Even George Clooney)
As I said in yesterday’s piece, I’ve known Trump for years, even before he was president.
The Art of the Deal was hugely influential in my early career as a real estate developer. And I also literally wrote the book on his real estate holdings, The Trump Factor.
Even so, I’m not telling you who to vote for. That’s your business.
But whether you’re excited for a second Trump term or dreading it, it’s important to understand what it means for investors. Because, as I said, it’s going to happen.
To be fair, the writing was already on the wall for Joe Biden before this weekend’s failed assassination attempt on Trump.
It wasn’t pressure from Democrats or even the press that drove Richard Nixon from office. With enough patience, he probably could have weathered the storm.
But once his own people started turning on him, that was it. And he knew it.
The first major Republican figure to turn his back on Nixon was Rep. Lawrence Hogan from the House Judiciary Committee. On July 23, 1974, he bought airtime on television stations in his home state of Maryland to say:
The evidence convinces me that my president has lied repeatedly, deceiving public officials and the American people.
Nixon was gone by August.
Now, precisely 50 years later, Biden is facing the same party problems – this time thanks to his disastrous presidential debate.
Peter Welch (D-VT) became the first Senate Democrat to publicly say it last week. And as of July 12, 18 of his colleagues in the House have publicly taken the same stance.
Meanwhile, big donors are withholding some $90 million from Biden’s super PAC until he leaves. Even George Clooney is out.
That’s bad. Yet it gets worse from there, with Trump leading in virtually every battleground state. Even more damning, none other than New York is in play if a recent headline from the Daily Beast can be believed.
It reads: “Now Deep Blue New York Is Turning Into a Battleground State for Biden.”
Those electoral votes haven’t gone to a Republican candidate since Reagan’s ’84 campaign. So, if they’re even remotely up for grabs, the show is pretty much over.
That’s why the betting world was already edging further away from believing Biden could win going into this weekend. According to Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market, on Friday, July 12, Trump’s odds were at 60%.
As of yesterday, however, they’re up over 70%.
They know what I know and what you probably do as well. That it’s going to be Trump.
Which brings us back to the important question of what it all means for investors.
President Trump’s Priorities
The Republican National Convention kicked off yesterday in Milwaukee. And while Trump rewrote his entire acceptance speech to “bring the country together” again, the recently debuted “Make America Great Again” platform hasn’t changed one bit – including this part:
Common Sense tells us clearly that we must unleash American energy if we want to destroy inflation and rapidly bring down prices, build the greatest economy in history, revive our defense industrial base, fuel emerging industries, and establish the United States as the manufacturing superpower of the world. We will DRILL, BABY, DRILL and we will become energy independent and even dominant again.
That’s pure Trump.
Bold promises. Clear speaking.
In contrast, it’s not much of a secret that Biden has been antagonistic toward energy for much of his administration.
He canceled the Keystone XL pipeline on his very first day in office, after all. And just a year later, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth wrote in an open letter how, “Your administration has largely sought to criticize and at times vilify our industry.”
Then there’s his current secretary of energy, Jennifer Granholm…
Armed with a dual poly-sci/French major from U.C. Berkely, she accepted the position in 2021 – only to become somewhat infamous that November when she couldn’t answer how many barrels of oil the United States consumes per day.
There was also this gem:
Yeah, I mean, we obviously are “all in” on making sure that we meet the president’s goals of getting to 100% clean electricity by 2035 and net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. And, you know, if you drive an electric car, this would not be affecting you, clearly.
In effect, “Let them eat Teslas” – despite the cost, the logistics, and other unfavorable aspects I talked about the other day.
But that green-obsessed agenda will go out the door with a second Trump presidency. And when it does, some of the headwinds for energy will likely turn into tailwinds.
That isn’t to say every energy play will become wildly profitable. There will be winners, losers, and laggards alike.
So, before you go out and buy every big oil company you can think of, make sure you know a thing or two about the industry they operate in first…
Including the information in tomorrow’s Intelligent Income Daily where we’ll look at our favorite energy plays during Trump’s second term.
Regards,
Brad Thomas
Editor, Intelligent Income Daily